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As noted on this blog before, the IMF wants to sell gold to fund more international welfare programs but must have the approval of the US Congress before it can sell any gold. In a February 2008 post, I speculated that approval under a new Congress would be likely. Now, approval appears imminent.

This week a House-Senate committee will meet to reconcile differences between the House and the Senate in the Supplemental Budget Appropriations Bill. Buried in the bill is approval for the IMF to sell gold. No one is objecting to the sale.

To some, talk of a major institution selling gold is frightening. But, as I noted in the February 2008 post, the gold market has seen IMF sales before and has weathered them nicely.

As the mainstream media report the approval, there may be some downside movement in gold, but at least one gold analyst and investor sees the IMF sale as positive for gold.

Brian Kelly, writing for seekingalpha.com, sees China stepping forward and buying the gold. Kelly doesn’t think that it’s a coincidence that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner just ended a trip to China.

By all reports, Geithner avoided all contentious issues with China, such as massive Chinese theft of intellectual property or revaluing the Chinese currency. Instead, he sought a “greater role for China in the International Monetary Fund.”

Kelly further speculates that a sale to China would upset “India and several of the Gulf States as they all have expressed interest in purchasing the gold. If this occurs, nothing could be more bullish for the price of gold.”

Frankly, I haven’t seen anything substantive about India or any Gulf States wanting to buy the IMF gold. But, I guess it could be true. If I were sitting the gargantuan quantities of dollars that those nations hold, I’d want to buy gold. I just wonder if Kelly really has such information or is he, as a gold investor, simply wishing a major buyer would step forward.

Regardless, when news comes out that Congress has approved the sale of IMF gold, it will roil the markets. Bargain hunters may have opportunities to buy on dips in price. And, if Kelly is right about India and some Gulf States wanting to buy the IMF gold, he will certainly be right about that being bullish for gold.

Spreading across the Internet like a wildfire is the Bloomberg release that “Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the third-largest U.S. life insurer by 2008 sales, has bought gold for the first time in 152 years to hedge against further asset declines.”

“Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value,” Chief Executive Officer Edward Zore said in an interview following his comments at a conference hosted by Standard & Poor’s in Brooklyn. “In the Depression, gold did very, very well.”

Although many gold investors do not need validation to make them feel good about their gold investments, other investors like to know that such an esteemed institution as Northwest Mutual shares their feelings about how to protect against potential declines in the value of the dollar.

The insurance behemoth has accumulated about $400 million in gold; Zore did not disclose Northwestern’s plans for future gold investing.

Much confusion continues to reign as to whether the world’s financial system is suffering from inflation or deflation.  Given the brilliance of some of the commentators on today’s financial woes, I would think that the issue should be settled, but it is not.

The classical definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply; deflation is the opposite: a decrease in the money supply.  All other things being equal (They rarely are.), inflation (an increase in the money supply) results in an increase in the general price level, deflation (a decrease in the money supply) causes a fall in the general price level.

The confusion rises from the misappropriation of the use of words inflation and deflation by persons not familiar with the classical definitions.  To most news commentators and writers, and, sadly, many members of the financial world, inflation has come to mean an increase in prices, deflation a fall in prices.

Even Richard Russell, whom I consider a brilliant stock market analyst, goes with a confused concept of deflation.  He writes about deflation in the stock market and deflation in the housing market, referring to falling prices.  But, as Gary North has explained in a several treatises on deflation/inflation, which can be found on www.lewrockwell.com, the terms are used to indicate what is happening to the money supply.  Inflation and deflation are not words to indicate which direction prices are moving.

For example, the prices of computers have been falling for years.  Computers that deliver increased capability are cheaper almost by the month (albeit the rate of decline is slowing.)  Yet no one writes about deflation in the computer market.

I suspect that deflation crept into financial jargon because the stock market is a “money world.”  It is where money is made and lost.  And, during the housing mania, houses became investments.  When I was a kid, a house was a home, a place where you lived, and something that most adults wanted to get debt free as soon as possible.  (There was never any debt on the house in which I grew up, a concept that has probably as dead as the dodo.)

So, when stock prices fall over extend periods, financial analysts write about deflation in the stock market, and falling home prices elicit comments about deflation in the housing market.

Getting back to the macro-view, is the world’s financial system suffering from inflation or deflation?  It depends on what you mean by the definitions of inflation and deflation.  (Thank you, Billy Clinton.  “It depends on what the meaning of the word is is.”)

If by inflation you mean an increase in the money supply, we are definitely suffering from inflation.  Central banks around the world are cranking out their currencies, but none as massively our central bank, The Federal Reserve System.  The world is awash in paper currencies, or, worse yet, digital dollars that reside silica chips in computers.

However, if you define deflation as falling prices and look at stock prices and house prices, we are suffering from deflation, or, at least, deflation in two very important segments of our financial world.

What does all this mean to investors who opt for gold investing, who buy silver?  Should they buy more gold?  Should they lighten their positions by selling gold?  This topic will be revisited on this blog, but for me it is scary to have a lot of money sitting in banks, I do not care if we are seeing falling prices in some important sectors of our economy.

In his annual address to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, famed investor Warren Buffett warned of the dangers of holding dollar-denominated investments. Buffett’s concerns about the dollar stem from the world’s governments “solutions” to the ongoing financial crisis:  The dollar is headed south, and “You can bet on inflation,” he told shareholders during a six-hour question and answer marathon.

Although having dabbled in gold and silver in the 1960s and having made his now legendary 130 million-ounce purchase in 1998, Buffett cannot be labeled a goldbug. He has always favored income producing investments. However, his strident attacks on the dollar and criticism of the handling of the financial crisis are certain to be viewed as backdoor recommendations to invest in gold. Where else does one go to protect against inflation and the destruction of the dollar?

Actually, Buffett did have recommendations for his shareholders: be good at what you do and increase your earning power, and (2nd recommendation) own a “wonderful business that does not need capital.”

While these recommendations may sound great, they do not answer this question: How do you protect accumulated wealth against inflation if you no longer choose to work. Buffett can be excused for overlooking this. He’s still working at age 78, along with his partner Charlie Munger who is 85.

Other Buffett observations spewed at the Berkshire Hathaway meeting:

The world is in uncharted waters, and nobody knows the exact impact of unprecedented bailout and stimulation packages.

US Government Bonds are among the poorest choices for investors today, especially non-Americans.

The US is following policies that are bound to have inflationary consequences.

The people who are really going to pay (for the bailouts) are those who are buying fixed-interest US government bonds that will be worth less when they redeem them.

While Buffett may not have let the words buy gold bullion or consider investing in silver come out of his mouth, he said them anyway. Mineweb.com has an article on the meeting, as do other financial websites.

My April 13 article discussed Gene Arensberg’s theory that a short squeeze was developing in silver. The article further disclosed Arensberg’s evidence. With silver down sixty-five cents (as this is written) from yesterday’s New York COMEX close, one has to ask how a silver short squeeze is developing.

On a day-to-day basis, a short squeeze cannot be proved or disproved, just as one day of falling prices is not evidence of a bear market. Arensberg bases his position on ongoing developments: shrinking silver inventories in COMEX-approved warehouses, reduced large commercial traders’ short positions in silver futures contracts, and a flattening of the contango.

Following developments such as a potential short squeeze can be exciting, but CMI Gold & Silver Inc. clients need to remember their reasons for buying silver (and gold). Most probably, those reasons do not include the buying silver because of someone speculating about the potential development of a short squeeze. (Still, a short squeeze in silver, if one is developing, would be rewarding to silver investors.)

The primary reasons for buying silver and gold are the exploding federal budget deficit, the ever-increasing national debt, the crippling trade deficit and expectations of massive price inflation because of the massive monetary inflation associated with the exploding federal budget deficit. These four problems may be the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but we still have the fact that many states and cites are bankrupt. And, let’s not forget the fragile condition of the world’s banks and the world’s monetary system.

There are lots of valid reasons for buying silver, other than the developing short squeeze in silver, but following the developments around any short squeeze certainly makes for an interesting and sometimes exciting silver market. Here is a link to the April 13 article: Silver squeeze developing? Here is still more information about investing in silver.